World Politics · resolved market
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portugal election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc15bca4cfd0a28afb3f1ee998a0e2214e488837825754016683e714157bc8854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5773…dc71backed Yes | 7c | 39,087$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…7878backed Yes | 0c | 37,299$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…072dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,818$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 11,721$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…def7backed Yes | 2c | 9,830$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…4a1cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,399$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…d7b4backed Yes | 1c | 9,293$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d26…f59dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,388$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…de04backed Yes | 9c | 3,705$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…eac7backed Yes | 0c | 3,675$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…b450backed Yes | 1c | 3,319$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,791$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,722$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…024ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,707$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d9…f063backed Yes | 1c | 2,510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,377$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 2,308$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 8cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 2,061$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…95cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…1846backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,964$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…892abacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,923$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…314cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,510$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 15c | 1,257$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…9354backed Yes | 7c | 1,239$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…68f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,224$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e9…cac1backed Yes | 2c | 1,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked Yes | 12c | 1,033$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad0…a5afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…f1fbbacked Yes | 10c | 867.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…14d6backed Yes | 12c | 862.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…7d84backed Yes | 12c | 836.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…2347backed Yes | 10c | 801.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 764.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes | 8c | 544$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb1…3020backed Yes | 6c | 522$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…0e17backed Yes | 8c | 450$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…e6e5backed Yes | 7c | 345.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…15e4backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Yes | 7c | 304.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3363…ddb7backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…6b8cbacked Yes | 10c | 209.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 72c | 202.65$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c6…1b2cbacked Yes | 11c | 193$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 77c | 174.47$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…2924backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…e1ddbacked Yes | 12c | 100.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee5…b85abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…529fbacked No | 75c | 61.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.