CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19bf63cb8f59fdd463ec8e9a6998a956a513e7de2f06fc2912e1d48243e1493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, KOLESIE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7069…325bbacked KOLESIE | 48c | 1,372$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.5 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU | 56c | 1,349$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.89 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…9723backed HOTU | 73c | 617.9$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 211 | 35.5%75 W · 136 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked KOLESIE | 51c | 508.86$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed HOTU | 61c | 460.4$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed KOLESIE | 14c | 415.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked HOTU | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked KOLESIE | 40c | 284.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU | 54c | 241.43$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed KOLESIE | 42c | 239.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked HOTU | 44c | 213.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked HOTU | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed KOLESIE | 19c | 184.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed KOLESIE | 18c | 183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed KOLESIE | 20c | 148.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…ed67backed KOLESIE | 16c | 142$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 193 | 40.4%78 W · 115 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed KOLESIE | 60c | 136$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked KOLESIE | 27c | 116.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5509…acccbacked HOTU | 55c | 101.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked HOTU | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed HOTU | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked KOLESIE | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed KOLESIE | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked HOTU | 55c | 91.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e46…8c1cbacked HOTU | 58c | 72.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed KOLESIE | 49c | 66.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…2605backed HOTU | 65c | 55.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked KOLESIE | 61c | 45.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed HOTU | 47c | 42.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…4800backed KOLESIE | 56c | 35.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed HOTU | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HOTU | 58c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed HOTU | 51c | 30.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 160 | 23.8%38 W · 122 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked HOTU | 77c | 30.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed KOLESIE | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 489 | 43.6%213 W · 276 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked KOLESIE | 41c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked KOLESIE | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed KOLESIE | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed HOTU | 50c | 21.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 217 | 55.8%121 W · 96 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed KOLESIE | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.