Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a5b27ea0e7884f694130a00d7f5853ae705be1a190286781975ee25092c2c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 342.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 46c | 316.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 258.48$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 45c | 253.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 44c | 239.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 178.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 46c | 173.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 168.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…8de4backed Yes | 46c | 153.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 54c | 124$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 121.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 48c | 104.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 101.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 79.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 78.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 76.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 74.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 68.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 54c | 65.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 61.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 57.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 56.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 46c | 55.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…99a6backed No | 58c | 53.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 59c | 48.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 43c | 47.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 43.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 42.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 40.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 65c | 38.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 36.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 36.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 48c | 32.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 32.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 40c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 42c | 27.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 49c | 25.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…0bf7backed No | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 53c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 59c | 19.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.