NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c91ae4cde4dcd2d06e6114337261ffeba82b7786b76871ef5c7f3e51e2a880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,794 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 65c | 2,252$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.96 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 38c | 1,566$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.12 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 62c | 1,028$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.73 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 36c | 703.07$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.27 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 13c | 633.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 393.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.78 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…967abacked Over | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Over | 64c | 249.63$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…6096backed Under | 40c | 246$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 243.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…11b6backed Under | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…bc21backed Under | 40c | 220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afb…6d73backed Over | 60c | 204$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…03e6backed Over | 60c | 201$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 76c | 188$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 20c | 178.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 29c | 142.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 35c | 130$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…5a9fbacked Over | 65c | 115.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 63c | 111.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 64c | 85.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…21e7backed Over | 64c | 70.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Under | 35c | 56.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Over | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 37.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Over | 63c | 33.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Over | 63c | 22.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Over | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdc…e997backed Over | 63c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. DucksDucks won
- Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.