TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$219,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,665 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ27c16,371$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.211,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid40c11,708$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,073.7696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ20c9,653$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.6789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Team Liquid42c5,423$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,158.431428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Team Liquid63c5,090$3,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.9612630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed MOUZ11c4,832$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.7647650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Liquid66c4,428$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.5654556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ55c4,328$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.511,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid69c3,694$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab90…a576backed MOUZ14c2,918$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.686352.4%33 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed MOUZ28c2,906$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.62035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ51c2,888$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.221,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ33c2,750$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ41c2,716$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.4447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ56c2,554$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.371,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked MOUZ51c2,482$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.0723546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ27c2,468$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.442,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ38c2,409$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.552,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Team Liquid65c2,350$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.159650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Liquid74c2,333$1,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.8618362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed MOUZ34c1,998$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.439555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ59c1,992$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.3625549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Team Liquid69c1,963$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.089749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Liquid65c1,838$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.9620145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d6…90dfbacked Team Liquid67c1,772$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.022360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked MOUZ33c1,700$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.8341944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Liquid75c1,689$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Liquid59c1,596$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.7343049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Liquid66c1,485$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.0236654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked MOUZ35c1,420$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.1523653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed MOUZ34c1,416$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.1939042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ51c1,339$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.411,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid65c1,324$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.391,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ35c1,317$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Liquid75c1,307$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ54c1,262$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.591,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd7…f491backed MOUZ42c1,237$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.6511353.1%60 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Team Liquid40c1,226$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.753847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed MOUZ49c1,198$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.830336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Liquid79c1,188$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.41,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Liquid66c1,167$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.651,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked MOUZ34c1,100$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ59c1,091$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.7626843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Team Liquid43c1,087$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6219630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Liquid69c1,020$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.2896245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Liquid65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35032951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed MOUZ36c999.99$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MOUZ6c949.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Liquid62c942.8$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.757447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…6dd7backed MOUZ62c928.19$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.8875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+81.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed MOUZ29c914$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.711131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ47c868.68$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.9267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ50c842.74$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.3972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ47c810.67$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.142,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ60c807.95$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.7768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked MOUZ57c791.08$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Team Liquid67c770.31$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7530647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Liquid69c750$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed MOUZ30c739.22$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.4911150.5%56 W · 55 L+14.2wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Liquid69c704.66$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9346664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed MOUZ50c697.17$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.367448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…9be5backed Team Liquid67c692.69$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.043551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed MOUZ38c621.11$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7271342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed Team Liquid65c611.05$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8720452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdde9…f432backed Team Liquid71c563.07$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.557750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1568…0c2abacked Team Liquid54c553.95$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.872138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Team Liquid67c552.15$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5515949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed MOUZ33c550$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.54951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked MOUZ59c529.64$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.495940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed MOUZ36c527.94$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3857735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed MOUZ15c525.11$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.771,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed MOUZ59c512.5$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3718954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Liquid69c511.96$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7115051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed MOUZ37c506.31$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.841,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked MOUZ33c500.7$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2625246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…0ad0backed MOUZ41c465.33$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.982429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Team Liquid42c463.55$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.557342.5%31 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Team Liquid61c439.39$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5417954.2%97 W · 82 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Team Liquid73c434.34$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3329347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked MOUZ58c401.57$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9113854.3%75 W · 63 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MOUZ55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.961,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ54c388.56$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked MOUZ33c383.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6926956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Team Liquid79c360.29$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.35234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid64c355.59$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8443647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cd…3ca2backed MOUZ8c354.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.346532.3%21 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ45c352.78$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Team Liquid42c342.42$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.617443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Liquid72c339.65$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5132148.3%155 W · 166 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked MOUZ55c338.21$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0322954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d42…cde0backed Team Liquid35c336.35$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.635038%19 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed MOUZ14c330.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.933542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed MOUZ59c330.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0819458.8%114 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked MOUZ35c326.1$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5119951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked Team Liquid70c323.71$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.246949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Team Liquid64c306.64$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9416752.7%88 W · 79 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ef…840bbacked Team Liquid65c301.23$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.439058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked MOUZ38c300$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked Team Liquid68c297.14$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.033154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed MOUZ24c294.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8220939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.