TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No39c1,256$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.71,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes38c1,208$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.44,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No19c1,174$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.1127841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x855e…de25backed Yes80c848.02$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.44643.5%20 W · 26 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No38c469.9$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.354,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No33c398.5$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.459121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No26c376.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes78c346.13$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.289338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes25c332.81$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.621,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c302$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.475,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked Yes66c279$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.159552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c252.78$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes24c229.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4113160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes19c208.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.682,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No41c199.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.391,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed No25c162.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.476636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No9c162.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes28c161.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2768645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c154.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No64c153.66$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.667081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.465,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes27c149.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No36c137.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9511438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes61c127.88$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.6199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e65…1b38backed Yes41c117.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc12c…da6ebacked No76c102.56$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.451861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No43c100.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5416144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes21c96.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked No27c95.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8843430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes57c88.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes53c86.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3965749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…90d5backed No48c83.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.463865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c82.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.950373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes57c77.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.918931.7%60 W · 129 L-40.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c76.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.612,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No52c75.83$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.471,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No76c75.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9330168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes33c75.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9143441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No29c75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.231,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes21c69.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3844536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes23c68.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9837942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c66.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.313,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes19c63.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes24c63.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No37c61.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.741,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c59.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.044,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…3b47backed Yes54c55.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304156.1%23 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.153,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No56c54.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed No23c52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0420230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Yes24c50.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes23c50.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5513842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.276767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes67c45.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9720144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes71c44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2427669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No28c43.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.464729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3209…0508backed Yes23c43.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104134.1%14 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No34c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.361,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbfc…31b1backed No34c41.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5712829.7%38 W · 90 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.224,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf43…66f5backed Yes25c39.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310234.3%35 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.164,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No71c35.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1757264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No41c33.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8cd…0d51backed No41c33.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9714250.7%72 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2510…b91bbacked No32c32.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.378545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed No35c29.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.263842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…a22dbacked No43c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.539058.9%53 W · 37 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4226861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c20.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.651,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb040…ef71backed Yes76c20.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2611362.8%71 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed Yes80c19.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3312954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae6e…b4bebacked No77c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.073458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes76c17.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0323463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1359…7e7bbacked No75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411774.4%87 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes65c15.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110953.2%58 W · 51 L+19.9wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+424.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No80c15.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0827376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes78c15.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8219461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed Yes75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed Yes75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.257747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.