Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d6c35ccf1efe7fd8fd030addf394e5d723216a368bb15cbc0d60b10f8d60d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 39c | 1,256$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.7 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,208$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 19c | 1,174$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.11 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 80c | 848.02$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 469.9$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 33c | 398.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.4 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 26c | 376.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 78c | 346.13$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.28 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 332.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 302$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 66c | 279$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 252.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 24c | 229.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 208.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 199.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed No | 25c | 162.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 162.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 28c | 161.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 154.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 64c | 153.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 36c | 137.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 127.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 41c | 117.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 76c | 102.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 43c | 100.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 96.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 27c | 95.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 88.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 86.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 48c | 83.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 82.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 57c | 77.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 76.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 75.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 75.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 33c | 75.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 21c | 69.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 23c | 68.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 66.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 19c | 63.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 63.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 61.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 54c | 55.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 56c | 54.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed No | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 24c | 50.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 23c | 50.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 67c | 45.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked No | 28c | 43.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 23c | 43.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed No | 34c | 41.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 25c | 39.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 33.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 41c | 33.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 32c | 32.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 35c | 29.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 20.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed Yes | 76c | 20.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 80c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 65c | 15.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 78c | 15.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.