Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31a321531ca425c5407a572ed3aa87bd9476728fad2a7e46f43aaf20ee21ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVS Futebolof Sporting CP, AVS Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed AVS Futebol | 56c | 3,335$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.49 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sporting CP | 43c | 1,258$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.78 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Sporting CP | 53c | 738.67$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.63 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Sporting CP | 43c | 673.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sporting CP | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -17.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed AVS Futebol | 47c | 348.6$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Sporting CP | 35c | 256.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Sporting CP | 49c | 239.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…8f57backed AVS Futebol | 54c | 221.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed AVS Futebol | 63c | 195.78$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed AVS Futebol | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Sporting CP | 43c | 140.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked AVS Futebol | 55c | 110.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sporting CP | 29c | 98.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked AVS Futebol | 54c | 98.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked AVS Futebol | 51c | 92.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Sporting CP | 48c | 90.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Sporting CP | 46c | 79.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Sporting CP | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Sporting CP | 43c | 64.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Sporting CP | 44c | 63.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Sporting CP | 44c | 57.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed AVS Futebol | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…4ca9backed Sporting CP | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sporting CP | 41c | 52.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AVS Futebol | 62c | 51.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked AVS Futebol | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked AVS Futebol | 51c | 37.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Sporting CP | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Sporting CP | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed AVS Futebol | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Sporting CP | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sporting CP (-2.5)this page
- AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 1.5Over won
- AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5Under won
- AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 3.5Under won
- AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)AVS Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.