Fifa International · resolved market
United States to score first vs. Paraguay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33a4381c2feb49d30fa68a732d396aeaf8a6c78f51ffd11ab8fcfc926faa1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 0c | 41,913$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 43c | 2,301$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.24 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 57c | 2,296$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.41 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 43c | 2,174$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.12 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 43c | 2,001$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.45 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2e6bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,462$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.17 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed No | 43c | 828$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.04 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 44c | 772.77$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.02 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 769.84$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.69 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Yes | 58c | 751.29$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.54 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 731.37$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 44c | 692.59$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.88 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 659 | 48.6%320 W · 339 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 58c | 534.48$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.48 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Yes | 56c | 483.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.75 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Yes | 57c | 456.14$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 44c | 440.89$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ae13backed Yes | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 43c | 325.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 306.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 302.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8e…1438backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 296.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.68 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…4be5backed Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…7469backed Yes | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 41c | 241.05$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 311 | 56.6%176 W · 135 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…50d3backed Yes | 58c | 198.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 247 | 49.8%123 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 40c | 179.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 282 | 58.2%164 W · 118 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…5743backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…6de4backed Yes | 59c | 170.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 167.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc00d…b3a0backed Yes | 60c | 165.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…332fbacked Yes | 57c | 161.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e13…c506backed No | 43c | 136.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 29c | 116.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…58dabacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 90.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed Yes | 60c | 90.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 42c | 89.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb8…c3f0backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 227 | 52.4%119 W · 108 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 60c | 83.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 83.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…2746backed Yes | 57c | 81.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 197 | 39.6%78 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 77.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 57c | 66.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 171 | 48.5%83 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…6bebbacked Yes | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…c899backed Yes | 59c | 64.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…7b6fbacked Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…8ec2backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…c2edbacked Yes | 57c | 51.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…5713backed Yes | 57c | 42.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 58c | 40.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…c02cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…c908backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d8…2e25backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…ade2backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…a3adbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…c780backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…9bd8backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 164 | 54.3%89 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54d…ca0fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…79ddbacked Yes | 57c | 30.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe70e…2ddbbacked Yes | 56c | 21.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…076fbacked Yes | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…c180backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States to score first vs. Paraguay?this page
- Paraguay to score first vs. United States?No won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.