MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3beb721d5c531201939f19b1f9d048d561f0f0b4139184b62a89ba1bdf279a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 6,754$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.45 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 4,686$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 24c | 1,375$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.84 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 65c | 882.96$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.92 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Under | 61c | 767.9$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 39c | 483.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 37c | 427.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.63 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 413.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.47 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 29c | 203$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 39c | 171$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 39c | 163.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 40c | 120.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 118.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 64c | 106.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 54c | 94.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 62c | 94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 198 | 54.5%108 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 64.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 47.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 45.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Over | 35c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Under | 28c | 41.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Over | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 55c | 38.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…3be8backed Over | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…a9c2backed Over | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 34.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 61c | 34.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…b924backed Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…489abacked Over | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…65bfbacked Over | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a8ebacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…a57ebacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…ddecbacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 29.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 54c | 26.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 18.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.