MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4c08aa34d18e8b82fa6bdfd36526d006057fb86d98557ac362d982e1f4723c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed Over | 53c | 12,000$6,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.98 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 30c | 5,137$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 2,827$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,301$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…52b2backed Under | 23c | 1,800$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 75c | 801.27$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.85 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 795.34$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 487.42$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 436.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 35c | 308.01$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 77c | 275.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 61c | 236$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 187$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 45c | 152$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 70c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 31c | 130.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa5de…33b5backed Over | 67c | 117.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 30c | 116.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Over | 53c | 115.75$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 71c | 82.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 27c | 78.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 76.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 74c | 71.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 22c | 65.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…77debacked Under | 37c | 61.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 48c | 59.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 35c | 53.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 65c | 52.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 30c | 46.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 35c | 46.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 64c | 44.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 43.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…6b7cbacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…b4b4backed Under | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 62c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…7f0cbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.