TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Dodgersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,915 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers74c3,883$2,857 inWon+$1,025.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates25c2,725$674 inLost-$674.323,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers80c1,571$1,249 inWon+$321.691566.7%10 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates21c1,464$307 inLost-$307.441,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates20c1,443$287 inLost-$287.478,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c787.92$165 inLost-$165.468,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers28c577.53$164 inWon+$413.898,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Dodgers23c539.02$124 inWon+$414.794,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates77c500$385 inLost-$3859,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c473$99 inLost-$99.336,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Los Angeles Dodgers79c389.47$308 inWon+$81.7987750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Pittsburgh Pirates11c300$33 inLost-$3334639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c299$157 inLost-$157.2753261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates20c280.1$56 inLost-$55.9912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Pittsburgh Pirates22c276.64$60 inLost-$6028639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers69c123.95$85 inWon+$395,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers72c102.27$73 inWon+$2910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates28c102.27$29 inLost-$292,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates21c100$21 inLost-$20.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates21c97.76$21 inLost-$20.5329354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Dodgers79c86$68 inWon+$18.062,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates65c79.02$52 inLost-$51.64,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd208…2751backed Los Angeles Dodgers79c78$62 inWon+$16.3817446%80 W · 94 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers79c76.38$60 inWon+$16.044,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c73.33$15 inLost-$15.436250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Pittsburgh Pirates18c67$12 inLost-$12.1383053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0195…9f64backed Los Angeles Dodgers80c62.5$50 inWon+$12.57558.7%44 W · 31 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Los Angeles Dodgers23c50$12 inWon+$38.528943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Pittsburgh Pirates35c39.2$14 inLost-$13.731,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab9…eb2dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates76c26.32$20 inLost-$201080%8 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c25.67$12 inLost-$11.812,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c99…9729backed Los Angeles Dodgers67c22.39$15 inWon+$7.392454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Dodgers78c14.55$11 inWon+$3.22,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.