Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e9e58cf5a8fefdcd288a5c99291d45ecdf332c9b258c44685e95550fe68264
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,203$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.19 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,100$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.21 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 991.06$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 750.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 688.43$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 489.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 76c | 443.28$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 15c | 423.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.54 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 15c | 422.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.56 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 422$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 369.42$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 37c | 362$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.81 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 357.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 298.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 253.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.07 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 20c | 230.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 228.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 77c | 199.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 16c | 198.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 198.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 175$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 161.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 22c | 160.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 22c | 141.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.79 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 137.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 76c | 134.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 10c | 133$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 17c | 131.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 78c | 128.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 125.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 17c | 115.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 14c | 112.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 107.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 30c | 100.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 72c | 84.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 22c | 83.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 68c | 83.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 14c | 76.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 19c | 65.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 78c | 58.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 28c | 54.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…d900backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 44c | 53.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…95a0backed Yes | 45c | 44.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 42.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 42.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 41.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 60c | 41.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 40.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 72c | 34.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 29.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 78c | 27.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 79c | 23.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 23.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 78c | 17.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 74c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.