Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99800688fe3c4829afa58b95bcb5ac62757943e048dfc7e837fc6cc3ed7bdb08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc058…481abacked Yes | 0c | 19,354$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 64c | 3,207$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed Yes | 69c | 2,500$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 2,495$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 55c | 1,164$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 1,118$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3c9bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,021$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 32c | 897.83$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.28 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 29c | 781.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 701.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 80c | 699.86$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.32 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 75c | 692.71$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.76 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 39c | 687.93$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 686.89$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 613.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 66c | 578.41$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 52c | 562.55$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.47 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 557.47$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 68c | 472.77$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 454.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 33c | 445.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 52c | 426.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 77c | 400$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.83 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 39c | 367$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 37c | 341.7$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.65 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 34c | 330.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.29 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 314.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 35c | 300.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…7bfcbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 295.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 62c | 290.77$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 40c | 275$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 37c | 272.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 272$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 269$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 18c | 268$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.24 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 258.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 35c | 231.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 230.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 78c | 228.62$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 25c | 216.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 37c | 210.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 210$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 24c | 205$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 27c | 204.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 202.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 187$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 36c | 183.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 35c | 182.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 31c | 180.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 63c | 164.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 33c | 158.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 32c | 154.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked No | 33c | 150.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 69c | 139.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…a024backed No | 24c | 133.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 35c | 129.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 43c | 127$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 68c | 120.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 72c | 113.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 24c | 106.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 100.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 23c | 95.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 76c | 92.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…ace6backed Yes | 77c | 91.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 88.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 70c | 88.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 54c | 85.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 61c | 83.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 19c | 81.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 79c | 75.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 32c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 71.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 33c | 71.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 67c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 70c | 65.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 65.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 63.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 61.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 61.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked No | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 65c | 55.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 60c | 50.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 76c | 50.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.