Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42a16f7ee9ac924bd2e3f5345e39d5e27fcfebc8325a3fbfcd1745b9fdbb7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,939 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x976d…430cbacked No | 2c | 10,122$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356f…639fbacked No | 1c | 1,479$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 856.23$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 35c | 375.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.84 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 310.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 272.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…3d69backed Yes | 66c | 271.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 19c | 170$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 7c | 163.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 45c | 159.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 149.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 66c | 135$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 62c | 110.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 101.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 96.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 90.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 87.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 83.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 41c | 79.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 66c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 56c | 60.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 73c | 60.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 47c | 58.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 50c | 57.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 55.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 50.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 33c | 50.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 44.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 45c | 44.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 52c | 39.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 39.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 51c | 38.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 35.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 28.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes | 51c | 25.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 45c | 22.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 21.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 68c | 18.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…3c08backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 72c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.