Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086d96860f6bdb83b70b2a1181210d8decb66a56ea4199e075086814906977a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,564 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeee…4e57backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 675$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 39c | 383.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 312.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Yes | 34c | 290.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 228.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 34c | 211.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 185.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 32c | 172.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 159.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 148.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 146.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 133.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 24c | 124.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 123.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 123.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 109.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 109.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 101.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 36c | 88.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 85.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 19c | 84.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 29c | 83.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 78.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 35c | 69.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 64.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 59c | 56.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 65c | 49.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…be05backed Yes | 33c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 35c | 37.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 32c | 30.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…8c52backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 29.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.