Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42d772438202821331e603ed9ac1b207f6d63316d8ad8f8258ebc07f433628f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 1,510$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 577.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 538.19$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 431.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 312$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 288.05$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 264.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 245.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 54c | 224.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 174$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 150.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 53c | 141.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 135.83$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 55c | 121.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 120.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 111$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 93.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 84.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 78.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 47c | 74.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 72.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 71.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 61.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 60.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 46c | 59.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 59.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 47c | 59.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 71c | 47.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 43.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 45c | 37.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 67c | 37.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 36.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 53c | 35.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed No | 31c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…e6bfbacked Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 45c | 33.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 47c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 54c | 29.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 26.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 26.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 26.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 56c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 19.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 19.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 18.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 76c | 14.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.