Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd3dad21ad85d8257e7c902468dccd3e680b7a305e34d7c80809d85642d0757c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 1,183$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 605.78$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 508.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 67c | 473.69$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.37 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 322.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 290.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 288.57$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 262.3$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 230.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 51c | 217.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 204.11$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 174.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 171.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 34c | 167.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 164.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 143.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 132.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 65c | 128.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 49c | 126.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 126$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 109.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 42c | 108.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 107.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 43c | 102.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 94.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…584dbacked Yes | 57c | 93.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 92.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 44c | 89.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 59c | 86.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 59c | 84.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 52c | 79.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 74.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 73.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 41c | 71.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 70.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 63.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 59.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 59.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 32c | 52.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 54c | 50.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 57c | 50.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 45.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 53c | 44.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…2cbcbacked Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 49c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 38.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 66c | 38.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 34.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…e6bfbacked Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 30.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 72c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 27.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 26.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 64c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 63c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 55c | 19.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 77c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.