Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc441cbb58fd4cff13b211603f3103ebfed2287c935f9e688356e742153cde7c9

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Manchester Cityof Manchester City, Bournemouth
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,806 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3993…cdedbacked Bournemouth	54c	24,340$13,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,143.64	150	49.3%74 W · 76 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Manchester City	46c	24,000$11,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,960.73	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Bournemouth	54c	3,260$1,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750.71	357	58%207 W · 150 L	+12.5wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Manchester City	46c	2,177$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,176.7	109	62.4%68 W · 41 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bournemouth	56c	2,170$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,218.92	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Manchester City	43c	2,124$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,210.58	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Bournemouth	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	45	60%27 W · 18 L	+5.5wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Manchester City	41c	1,616$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.2	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-49%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Manchester City	46c	1,439$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777.13	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa070…c103backed Bournemouth	57c	951.91$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.59	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City	45c	925.03$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.52	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…7395backed Manchester City	45c	886.17$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.17	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Manchester City	44c	684.52$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.52	153	47.7%73 W · 80 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Bournemouth	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Bournemouth	57c	486$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.02	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Bournemouth	43c	465.61$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e8…0596backed Manchester City	44c	454.55$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.55	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+2.9wins	+0.21per pick	51cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Manchester City	44c	420.45$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.45	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9e8…ca21backed Bournemouth	59c	365.54$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bournemouth	55c	352.78$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.35	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4dd…3c12backed Bournemouth	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb22…ce57backed Manchester City	46c	319.57$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.57	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Manchester City	43c	297.99$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.85	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Bournemouth	57c	258.95$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.6	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Bournemouth	55c	199.96$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	143	42.7%61 W · 82 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd289…ca74backed Manchester City	51c	184.79$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Bournemouth	57c	169.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.89	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d94…5d78backed Bournemouth	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Bournemouth	60c	166.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+32%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester City	42c	153.45$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.75	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Manchester City	55c	146.47$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.91	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	42cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Bournemouth	57c	140.35$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3600…606fbacked Bournemouth	55c	140.35$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.98	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-73%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbe2…b355backed Bournemouth	36c	135.55$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Manchester City	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Manchester City	45c	104.44$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.84	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Manchester City	44c	102.27$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.27	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c4…501bbacked Bournemouth	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Manchester City	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd480…799ebacked Manchester City	56c	98.55$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.62	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6a…c984backed Manchester City	67c	95.17$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.18	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519c…7fc9backed Bournemouth	67c	94.03$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Bournemouth	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7906…3907backed Manchester City	44c	79.55$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cfd…c435backed Manchester City	45c	77.87$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.83	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed Manchester City	45c	75$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.25	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+4.0wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2f9…eb15backed Manchester City	59c	71.37$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+132.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x003b…fc58backed Manchester City	45c	67.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.95	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Manchester City	46c	65.66$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.68	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23bd…2ea6backed Bournemouth	65c	61.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Bournemouth	37c	60.76$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	253	29.2%74 W · 179 L	+11.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52cc…907cbacked Manchester City	47c	51.06$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825a…ece6backed Bournemouth	59c	50.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Manchester City	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	178	49.4%88 W · 90 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Bournemouth	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Manchester City	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fbb…2349backed Manchester City	44c	45.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df8…5332backed Manchester City	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604a…30e9backed Bournemouth	59c	41.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Manchester City	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Manchester City	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Manchester City	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b29…5a9abacked Manchester City	51c	38.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc92…ac10backed Manchester City	44c	36.36$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.36	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+277.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Manchester City	42c	35.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.71	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa2…c110backed Manchester City	45c	35.56$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.56	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd774…e11fbacked Bournemouth	54c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44ac…9aeabacked Bournemouth	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+120.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c8…2f76backed Bournemouth	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18c9…66b0backed Bournemouth	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd145…dc26backed Manchester City	63c	31.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62b0…abdabacked Bournemouth	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef1a…a5e4backed Manchester City	43c	30.23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.23	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc6…0f52backed Bournemouth	59c	27.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bournemouth	38c	26.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	577	44.4%256 W · 321 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Manchester City	55c	26.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f5…6df5backed Manchester City	62c	24.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba4…974cbacked Bournemouth	62c	24.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	53cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3909…56d7backed Bournemouth	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.5wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Manchester City	62c	19.94$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.58	146	43.2%63 W · 83 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Bournemouth	60c	19.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	292	38.4%112 W · 180 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd99c…ead4backed Manchester City	62c	18.87$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.17	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa054…07c2backed Bournemouth	61c	16.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.23per pick	42cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)this page
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event