NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4490bdc1671421565794230a0042209bbd26a59af5efe32b9ee0af49e4f4cdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 48c | 1,970$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.4 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 1,271$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 623$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 54c | 536.02$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 370$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 54c | 92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Over | 47c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…b35abacked Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +8.1wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…70ddbacked Under | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.