NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43537f13ba75633bdc60577654bbe6e9a0bcd82471d524a64ecd3efa37168e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 50c | 152$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.