NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x735b434d37bce45adb886b5a92de2d393bce88f4b2b2f9c3da04bdf07988315f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Nets, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Mavericks | 67c | 182$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Mavericks | 67c | 144$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Mavericks | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Mavericks | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Mavericks | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Mavericks | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Mavericks | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Mavericks | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Nets | 33c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Nets | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Nets | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Mavericks | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Nets | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Nets | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Nets | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Nets | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.