NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eecc9b2c18bb0b5cecf2407c15b0a3be397729b8a1599d441e652296f33c24b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 11c | 802$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 56c | 108$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 16c | 86.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Under | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 56c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 44c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Under | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Nets won
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.