NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852e710e4abd64af2b3f473545877e8cecfacd70497c3f830f842f46ba03bf1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Netsof Mavericks, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Nets | 50c | 133$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Nets | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Nets | 50c | 117$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Nets | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Nets | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Mavericks | 50c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Nets | 50c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Nets | 50c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Mavericks | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Mavericks | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Mavericks | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Nets | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Mavericks | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Mavericks | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Mavericks | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Nets | 49c | 27.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Mavericks | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Mavericks | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Mavericks | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Mavericks | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Mavericks | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Mavericks | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Mavericks | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Mavericks | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Mavericks | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)this page
- Nets vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 221.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 222.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 223.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.