Tennis · resolved market
Bastad: Paula Badosa vs Varvara Lepchenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc498cb0eaa8547c5b80ec77aea3f36c0f428ba9efa6a3ba345cf133b491bcce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paula Badosaof Paula Badosa, Varvara Lepchenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41cf…6002backed Varvara Lepchenko | 6c | 20,775$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.75 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Varvara Lepchenko | 10c | 10,182$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.17 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Varvara Lepchenko | 9c | 8,131$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 5,939$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.11 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 11c | 4,808$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.14 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 3,016$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.05 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Varvara Lepchenko | 7c | 3,007$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 1,026 | 50%513 W · 513 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Varvara Lepchenko | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Varvara Lepchenko | 17c | 1,165$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…0606backed Varvara Lepchenko | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Varvara Lepchenko | 14c | 815$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 622.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Varvara Lepchenko | 9c | 563.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Varvara Lepchenko | 10c | 557.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…c764backed Varvara Lepchenko | 9c | 511.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…a20dbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Varvara Lepchenko | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 10.7%19 W · 159 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Varvara Lepchenko | 7c | 455.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 454.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Varvara Lepchenko | 10c | 446.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Varvara Lepchenko | 9c | 415.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 414.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 398.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…7c8abacked Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 377.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 409 | 35.7%146 W · 263 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 16c | 368.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 366.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 279.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Varvara Lepchenko | 10c | 240.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Varvara Lepchenko | 8c | 222.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 180 | 38.3%69 W · 111 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…68b6backed Varvara Lepchenko | 11c | 200.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 112 | 14.3%16 W · 96 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 185.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Varvara Lepchenko | 19c | 174.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Varvara Lepchenko | 15c | 131.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 789 | 57.8%456 W · 333 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Varvara Lepchenko | 12c | 107.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Varvara Lepchenko | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Varvara Lepchenko | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 271 | 32.1%87 W · 184 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Varvara Lepchenko | 13c | 75.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Varvara Lepchenko | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Paula Badosa | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 257 | 68.9%177 W · 80 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bastad: Paula Badosa vs Varvara Lepchenkothis page
- Paula Badosa vs. Varvara Lepchenko: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Lepchenko (+1.5)Badosa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.