Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4dca87216b467a4f29b04ed4f6721ec5b60bb8236f0c634f2019be6d29800cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 357.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 286.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 277.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.35 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 273.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 55c | 229.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 221.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 198.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 48c | 143.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 134.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 48c | 124.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 112.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 111.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 107.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 104.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 103.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 100.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 53c | 98.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 89.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 84.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 81.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 78.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 69.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 53c | 67.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d8fdbacked No | 35c | 66.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 53.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 51.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 39.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 48c | 39.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 38.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 28c | 36.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 36.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 56c | 33.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 44c | 27.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…ac89backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…0f87backed No | 53c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 21.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 61c | 21.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 21.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 18.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.