Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3944ef6c2ff1b698d4a46ea1c90be575cdfe3558d286e0741a75d4939793883d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 332.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 41c | 316.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 232.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 231.39$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 200.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 172$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 152.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 130.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 127.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 126.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 110.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 100.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 97.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 97.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 93.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 41c | 89.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 87.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 82.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 61c | 81.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 81.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 80.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 80.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 77.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 70.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 69.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 69.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 35c | 68.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 61c | 68.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 35c | 61.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 56.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 65c | 54.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 54.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked No | 61c | 44.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 36c | 41.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 36c | 38.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 36.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 34.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed No | 68c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 42c | 28.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked Yes | 42c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 18.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.