Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4eeff3e83c48fa86aa87f013286aebdfac2bba10947c48283c4a4c3ec684b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 69c | 1,400$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.93 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 838.6$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.29 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Over | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 129 | 20.2%26 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 31c | 438.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 67c | 309.76$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 269.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 31c | 174.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Over | 35c | 83.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 32c | 56.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Over | 32c | 55.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 68c | 45.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 32c | 43.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 67c | 24.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.