Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe28507fbc6b55865aeb28a34940db4c8d6c598a0a39ffc7e6273e74ab757007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Under | 2c | 19,830$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ea…b845backed Over | 67c | 4,321$2,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 1,560$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.01 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 69c | 623.55$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 63c | 551.3$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 443.02$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…17eabacked Over | 68c | 321.21$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Over | 68c | 218.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 33c | 137$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 37c | 133.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 70c | 117.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 44c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 31c | 85.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…af6bbacked Over | 64c | 76.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 68.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 70c | 38.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 34c | 36.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 57c | 30.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.