Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd317a6f925873cb336f95133f7874e7e9b22264c406a788031fa0b0548658a9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 21c | 5,840$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.36 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…4f43backed Over | 74c | 4,324$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 3,750$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.62 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 80c | 2,774$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.09 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 2,411$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.45 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 22c | 1,333$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.99 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.25 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 75c | 1,270$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.46 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 25c | 1,076$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 75c | 512$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Over | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 376.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 16c | 349.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…b092backed Over | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 76c | 313.76$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed Over | 64c | 313.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Over | 79c | 294$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47e…4e60backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 65c | 231$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 24c | 173.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Over | 72c | 145.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 138.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 135.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 118.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 76c | 96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 78c | 90.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 86.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 25c | 81.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Over | 77c | 71.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 64.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 24c | 60.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc604…9da5backed Over | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 25c | 43.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…ff48backed Over | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…b421backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0d…57dabacked Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…5e7dbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Over | 74c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.