Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0d9650e38d63da160f94bc5aea2323ea733bae37b52c81454a80e65bc79a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 14,728$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.98 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 9,999$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.88 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 13c | 6,269$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.85 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 10c | 4,673$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.02 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 6c | 4,640$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.25 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 9c | 3,591$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.12 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 3c | 1,456$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 4c | 869.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 10c | 578.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 16c | 469.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 183.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 14c | 158.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…f3c8backed Under | 79c | 152.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 14c | 135.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 75c | 84.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 25c | 59.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5this page
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: ACF Fiorentina O/U 1.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.