TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Serie A · resolved market

AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: AS Roma O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e70…32b0backed Under1c3,712$37 inLost-$37.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c3,071$1,468 inLost-$1,467.772,53845.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over52c1,917$997 inWon+$919.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over52c834.21$434 inWon+$400.4212357.7%71 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over46c834.18$384 inWon+$450.463756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under47c459.46$215 inLost-$214.851139.1%200 W · 311 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over54c252.04$136 inWon+$115.942536%9 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cce…2ff1backed Over53c187.88$100 inWon+$87.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under54c185.19$100 inLost-$10039740.6%161 W · 236 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under33c184$61 inLost-$60.5230828.9%89 W · 219 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1306…c689backed Over53c103.77$55 inWon+$48.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under47c101.85$48 inLost-$47.858962.9%56 W · 33 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed Under47c95.74$45 inLost-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under48c93$45 inLost-$44.642025%5 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-48.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over73c88.25$64 inWon+$24.174940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under45c85.56$38 inLost-$38.3612350.4%62 W · 61 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over53c57.08$30 inWon+$26.833650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x837d…86dfbacked Over45c55.56$25 inWon+$30.56785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick43cpaid+87.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under48c52$25 inLost-$25.15339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over72c50$36 inWon+$141855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over50c50$25 inWon+$254553.3%24 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…24b1backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Under48c35.5$17 inLost-$17.132634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-35.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over57c26.74$15 inWon+$11.471250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over74c20$15 inWon+$5.246742.8%200 W · 267 L-1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over53c19.97$11 inWon+$9.32744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.