CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc597a66d64b36166e7518b31d9a6791a890ce318f032a08369dcd31e8b94599c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Lavked
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Lavked | 29c | 4,332$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.71 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed fnatic | 72c | 2,100$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.57 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed fnatic | 71c | 1,025$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.39 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed fnatic | 67c | 800$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.95 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Lavked | 34c | 474.94$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 401 | 40.6%163 W · 238 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Lavked | 40c | 455.83$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.33 | 537 | 46.2%248 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Lavked | 34c | 448$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked fnatic | 78c | 337.61$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked fnatic | 68c | 257.5$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 190 | 30.5%58 W · 132 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked fnatic | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed fnatic | 75c | 199.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked fnatic | 77c | 194.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Lavked | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 299 | 34.4%103 W · 196 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed fnatic | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked fnatic | 70c | 141.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed fnatic | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Lavked | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked fnatic | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lavked | 15c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…e919backed Lavked | 36c | 102.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 107 | 25.2%27 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lavked | 32c | 102.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked fnatic | 74c | 101.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed fnatic | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Lavked | 31c | 98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…c414backed fnatic | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Lavked | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Lavked | 30c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -19.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lavked | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed fnatic | 64c | 68.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed fnatic | 67c | 61.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lavked | 21c | 59.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed fnatic | 60c | 54.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed fnatic | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed fnatic | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 500 | 50.6%253 W · 247 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Lavked | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed fnatic | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…2d57backed fnatic | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…bde6backed fnatic | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 587 | 62.2%365 W · 222 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…e138backed fnatic | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Lavked - Map 1 Winnerfnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.