Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c319b3f782f72c9e5c07b15463b9fd4bfd21d6daa90b89bcf92c895733f8f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ff4…6cc4backed Yes | 43c | 2,204$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 476.04$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 439$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 46c | 430$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 371$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 213.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 204.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 11c | 149.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 147.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 61c | 128.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 124.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 114.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 61c | 111.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 106.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 101.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 96.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 81.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 49c | 78.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 59.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 59.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 37c | 53.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 53.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 48.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 45c | 36.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 35c | 36.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 32.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 30.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 29.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 25.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.