Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5e415dcf01fdd70e5c290bacea403bb3efcf96d28c0113d5b2b35d7e92e66b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 632.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 39c | 510.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 499.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 444.6$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 421.19$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.62 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 388.14$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 39c | 378$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed No | 50c | 300.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 298.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 274.92$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 260.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 251$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 57c | 241.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 31c | 227.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 204.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 203.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 200$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 28c | 180.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 173.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 30c | 163.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 146.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 139.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 134$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 29c | 114.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 17c | 102.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 45c | 100.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 92.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 56c | 80.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 67c | 79.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 79.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 77.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 77.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 43c | 69.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 67.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 67.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 66.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 62.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 60.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 41c | 59.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 58.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4681…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 30c | 50.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 36c | 46.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 53c | 46.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 45.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 39.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 56c | 37.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…7689backed No | 45c | 36.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 60c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 30.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 29.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Yes | 63c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…9606backed Yes | 63c | 29.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 35c | 28.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…474fbacked Yes | 67c | 28.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 67c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 20.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…1f23backed No | 70c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 73c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 64c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 16.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…3b22backed Yes | 70c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.