Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f8f7e4a49531f5f97566b74d5c877bf8548c84395448eb6acb2647003609d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 68c | 2,251$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 33c | 1,912$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 69c | 1,524$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.38 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 76c | 599.93$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 19c | 490.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 481.83$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 423.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 396$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed No | 76c | 350$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 320.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 23c | 317.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 21c | 280.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 263.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 262.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 260.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 76c | 248.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bb…8295backed No | 78c | 236.12$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 219$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 208.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 206$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 174.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 172.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 25c | 168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 25c | 159.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 21c | 155$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 155$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked No | 80c | 142.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 17c | 135.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 28c | 131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 124.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 117.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 23c | 103.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 102.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…155fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45fa…d4c1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 98.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 95.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 94.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 86.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 85.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 73.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 78c | 70.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 29c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 66.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 63.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 59.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 56.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 74c | 55.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 26c | 53.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 50.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 49.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 27c | 47.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 77c | 45.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…0d66backed Yes | 30c | 43.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 77c | 40.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc06…bc87backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 34.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…e29fbacked Yes | 39c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 23.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 22.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…0231backed No | 78c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed No | 77c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.