Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5fc3278eb496c41e6a5ac65ba87248f4093ae0bf12aae772854497dff6f2b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 2,513$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 852.14$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 222.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 61c | 212.77$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 210.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 205.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 191.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 36c | 139.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 19c | 124.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 123.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 119.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 118.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 118.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 118.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 63c | 113.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 111.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 109.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 106.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 83.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 66.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 42c | 63.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 35c | 60.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 50c | 59.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 47.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 41.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 38.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 41c | 34.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 32.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 39c | 31.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 35c | 30.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 57c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 67c | 21.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 66c | 21.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 20.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 57c | 18.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 10°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 8°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 9°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.