Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc632bd1cf62cf24ecee061344574fb64fb8aced6cdce3550f47d29d2d24f1065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,881 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 2,581$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 2,534$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.46 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 11c | 1,265$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.51 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 13c | 1,050$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +282.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +517.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…66b9backed Under | 2c | 892$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 72c | 587.67$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.51 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 13c | 515.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.38 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +257.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 419.22$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.86 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 16c | 383.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 31c | 380.65$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 43c | 347.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 13c | 325.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.91 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 13c | 271.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.63 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 28c | 237.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 18c | 189.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.27 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 13c | 149.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 14cpaid | +535.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…0a1cbacked Over | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 29c | 49.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under | 77c | 33.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 33c | 32.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 73c | 24.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Under | 77c | 19.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.