Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0f1d4651dc8cc4b45a76daa6b18e93e726c65a718a600061d8282ad908d7248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,322 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 5,044$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470.88 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 4,196$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.69 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 27c | 730.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 39c | 700.55$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.31 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 660$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 71c | 614.7$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.44 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Under | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 28c | 394.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.19 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 37c | 342.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 33c | 335.54$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 74c | 331$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 64c | 308.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 300.78$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +517.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 63c | 149.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 32c | 146.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 55c | 100.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 58c | 94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 34c | 93.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Under | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 45c | 71.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 52c | 57.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 70c | 46.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…2faabacked Over | 62c | 43.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 68c | 42.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 42c | 42.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0039…602fbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 43c | 35.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 52c | 30.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under | 55c | 28.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…955bbacked Over | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 52c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 65c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…e71fbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Nantes vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.