TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, SK Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6842…20d0backed SK Gaming28c38,639$10,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,889.261,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed G2 Esports73c33,961$24,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,058.118554.1%100 W · 85 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed SK Gaming26c11,532$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.9981443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports66c10,267$6,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.291,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked SK Gaming28c9,634$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,652.0566437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports67c9,087$6,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.691,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports73c8,789$6,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.272,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports66c7,651$5,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.0585942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports80c7,649$6,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.9664455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed G2 Esports68c6,296$4,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.591,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed G2 Esports66c5,264$3,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,79639246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed SK Gaming27c5,154$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.0848449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed G2 Esports76c4,329$3,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.1169539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed SK Gaming23c4,250$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.963,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed SK Gaming7c2,646$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.2948135.3%170 W · 311 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked G2 Esports76c2,502$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.960847.9%291 W · 317 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed G2 Esports77c2,125$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.978458.3%49 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed SK Gaming28c2,047$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9539447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports78c1,777$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.931,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SK Gaming19c1,775$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.262,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed SK Gaming9c1,696$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3429527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked SK Gaming34c1,541$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.267358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked SK Gaming30c1,437$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.4854555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed SK Gaming23c1,422$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.993775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked G2 Esports77c1,354$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.3627447.8%131 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed G2 Esports67c1,303$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.2574250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked SK Gaming23c1,289$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4534536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed SK Gaming18c1,267$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4354246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed SK Gaming23c1,250$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.51,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed G2 Esports71c1,196$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.58560%51 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked G2 Esports70c1,149$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.8473237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed G2 Esports77c1,103$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.621,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked SK Gaming10c1,100$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9937933.5%127 W · 252 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked SK Gaming33c1,036$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0850242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed SK Gaming20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed SK Gaming20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked SK Gaming11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11039044.9%175 W · 215 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked G2 Esports77c941.99$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.662,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed SK Gaming17c908.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.031,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed SK Gaming23c866.33$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2627432.5%89 W · 185 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked G2 Esports78c830.79$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7767250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked SK Gaming21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed G2 Esports76c739.35$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9863161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed G2 Esports78c721.45$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7256432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports80c701.32$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.831,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked G2 Esports72c691.13$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0982044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed SK Gaming14c677.97$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.587889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed SK Gaming11c668.1$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.986633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed G2 Esports69c605.8$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.489552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0211…41f4backed G2 Esports65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2105166.7%34 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked SK Gaming22c597.31$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4118121%38 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed SK Gaming23c596.17$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1221137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked SK Gaming37c584.89$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4156341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed G2 Esports76c562.52$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.822,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed G2 Esports76c504.16$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3396350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked SK Gaming23c499.77$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.951,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…f876backed G2 Esports70c491$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.35040%20 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed G2 Esports69c457.79$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3875649.6%375 W · 381 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked G2 Esports68c432.71$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.471,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cd2…34e9backed SK Gaming22c428.94$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3777545%349 W · 426 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked SK Gaming29c403.37$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7138950.9%198 W · 191 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked G2 Esports64c393.4$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.561,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828b…a13fbacked SK Gaming12c385.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3710450%52 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…b30ebacked SK Gaming27c380.41$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.543948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed G2 Esports79c374.96$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7479151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…63f4backed SK Gaming26c367.54$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5645342.2%191 W · 262 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked SK Gaming25c364.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5436946.1%170 W · 199 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed SK Gaming33c347.73$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3510350.5%52 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed SK Gaming25c342.61$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2848747%229 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked SK Gaming20c326.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6758420.2%118 W · 466 L-58.1wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-43%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked G2 Esports78c322.61$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9735164.1%225 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed SK Gaming29c316.39$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.111645.7%53 W · 63 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked SK Gaming25c300.46$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1542250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed G2 Esports74c299.99$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.252,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed G2 Esports72c294.96$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5950647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked G2 Esports80c290.99$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.230856.5%174 W · 134 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea7e…2c67backed SK Gaming13c286.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5645551.9%236 W · 219 L+26.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed SK Gaming23c286.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.341,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked SK Gaming12c270$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.417143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed SK Gaming8c261.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21,54543.8%676 W · 869 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed G2 Esports80c259.62$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2612970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e8…5289backed G2 Esports77c256.16$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9215759.2%93 W · 64 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed SK Gaming38c255.28$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2641945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed G2 Esports78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.671,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe625…94c0backed SK Gaming25c252.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1774344%327 W · 416 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed SK Gaming19c250.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5769642.4%295 W · 401 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed G2 Esports76c246.4$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1432160.7%195 W · 126 L+0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed SK Gaming28c238.62$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.39643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked SK Gaming22c234.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5545937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed SK Gaming21c228.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7530348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked G2 Esports72c220.09$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.591,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked SK Gaming22c219.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3154329.8%162 W · 381 L-19.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed SK Gaming15c208.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3247933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked SK Gaming23c204.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.792,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked SK Gaming22c201.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7233125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked SK Gaming27c199.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531,01349.1%497 W · 516 L+29.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf544…4f8cbacked G2 Esports80c198.33$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6710850.9%55 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed G2 Esports67c195.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.129948.8%146 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed SK Gaming19c190.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1560053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba9…4fa1backed SK Gaming24c189.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.