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Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, SK Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$375,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,185 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed SK Gaming22c23,980$5,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,333.723,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed SK Gaming1c22,123$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.453775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed SK Gaming50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed SK Gaming1c14,202$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2481443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports79c13,299$10,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,767.6564455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed SK Gaming20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00021137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked SK Gaming2c7,282$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.651,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked SK Gaming9c7,115$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.771,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed SK Gaming55c5,282$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.2135648.9%174 W · 182 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…0716backed SK Gaming6c4,561$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0310343.7%45 W · 58 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed SK Gaming53c4,546$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,430.1815062%93 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed SK Gaming25c4,479$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.7469539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed G2 Esports57c4,415$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.6216254.9%89 W · 73 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked SK Gaming10c4,125$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.491,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed SK Gaming3c4,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed SK Gaming10c3,826$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.9185942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked SK Gaming15c3,656$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.862,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed SK Gaming1c3,153$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9445618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5511…5734backed SK Gaming32c3,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95024029.2%70 W · 170 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked G2 Esports79c2,826$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.51,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x78d9…70f6backed SK Gaming4c2,674$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2129527.1%80 W · 215 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SK Gaming15c2,613$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.262,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked SK Gaming41c2,581$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.0366437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked G2 Esports78c2,493$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.2667250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed G2 Esports51c2,405$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.163,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed SK Gaming25c2,267$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.481,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed G2 Esports63c1,820$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.771,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports78c1,790$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.21,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b4…f4d9backed G2 Esports64c1,759$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.0726062.7%163 W · 97 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked G2 Esports77c1,705$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2560847.9%291 W · 317 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed SK Gaming29c1,643$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.5992254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed SK Gaming42c1,463$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.421,81339.1%709 W · 1,104 L-30.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed SK Gaming23c1,329$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7876953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed G2 Esports59c1,307$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.581,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports78c1,266$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.4596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked G2 Esports58c1,261$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0550242.2%212 W · 290 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40af…abb2backed SK Gaming3c1,219$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.039526.3%25 W · 70 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked SK Gaming1c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked SK Gaming23c1,172$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.4795951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked SK Gaming8c1,084$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7273237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed SK Gaming47c1,066$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4639447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed G2 Esports78c1,019$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.951,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed G2 Esports58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42026443.6%115 W · 149 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports77c999.99$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb91…7db6backed SK Gaming10c993.68$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8730348.8%148 W · 155 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed G2 Esports79c982.44$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2833040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd2…f8a0backed G2 Esports70c921.32$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.558560%51 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked SK Gaming21c916.35$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.431,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed SK Gaming23c906.11$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.4159750.4%301 W · 296 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…5095backed SK Gaming42c839.91$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.276633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked SK Gaming13c829.37$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.782044%361 W · 459 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked G2 Esports50c801.48$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.311,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x509d…0a6bbacked G2 Esports76c787.5$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18967056.9%381 W · 289 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed SK Gaming11c775.44$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8274250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed G2 Esports79c750$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed G2 Esports61c750$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.51,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed SK Gaming52c748.71$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4511942.9%51 W · 68 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked SK Gaming39c747.59$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9651848.3%250 W · 268 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed G2 Esports69c706.22$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.8563161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed SK Gaming24c703.87$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.939739.2%38 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked SK Gaming29c699.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked G2 Esports73c665.95$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.752,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked G2 Esports78c665.6$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.431,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3072…4ca9backed G2 Esports73c634.71$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.0913647.1%64 W · 72 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed SK Gaming23c626.25$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0654246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked G2 Esports79c625.25$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.316555.2%91 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed SK Gaming19c612.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.841,29926.6%345 W · 954 L+65.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed SK Gaming10c591.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.571,5203.3%50 W · 1,470 L-54.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18e5…00e9backed G2 Esports78c557.54$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed G2 Esports74c530.86$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0610350.5%52 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed SK Gaming9c525.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.279338.7%36 W · 57 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked SK Gaming29c514.54$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.731,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed SK Gaming48c506.34$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2411645.7%53 W · 63 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed G2 Esports78c499.32$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.851,18751.9%616 W · 571 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc5…1135backed G2 Esports70c491$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.344042%185 W · 255 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d86…a6f9backed SK Gaming23c476.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6927432.5%89 W · 185 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked SK Gaming23c476.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6979653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c7…ba3ebacked G2 Esports76c470.77$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2733369.7%232 W · 101 L+28.5wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe1e…6b97backed G2 Esports49c445.48$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.746253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed SK Gaming24c443.59$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9380750.8%410 W · 397 L+48.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed G2 Esports78c430.14$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6379151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked SK Gaming23c427.88$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4140752.3%213 W · 194 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed G2 Esports73c406.45$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3986451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed G2 Esports58c400.03$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0150647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed SK Gaming25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003930.8%12 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed G2 Esports75c394$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.544039.5%174 W · 266 L-25.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4c8…86b4backed G2 Esports78c389.63$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7219157.1%109 W · 82 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ad…2267backed G2 Esports50c388$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19417150.9%87 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed G2 Esports76c387.1$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8456650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked SK Gaming46c387.04$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0456341%231 W · 332 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked SK Gaming32c374.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2533042.4%140 W · 190 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed SK Gaming38c349.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.548135.3%170 W · 311 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked G2 Esports78c346.37$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.222455.4%124 W · 100 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked G2 Esports72c342.88$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5243358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed G2 Esports57c341.03$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1667457.3%386 W · 288 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed SK Gaming32c332.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5336647.3%173 W · 193 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…0fd0backed SK Gaming23c331.76$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed G2 Esports54c331.22$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1747933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470c…2af9backed SK Gaming13c327.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7616636.1%60 W · 106 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bef…b47cbacked G2 Esports70c325.67$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.677770.1%54 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.