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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Washington Huskies vs. TCU Horned Frogs (W)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TCU Horned Frogsof Washington Huskies, TCU Horned Frogs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,603 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Washington Huskies57c8,855$5,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,066.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed TCU Horned Frogs50c4,340$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.3731646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Washington Huskies51c3,915$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Huskies36c3,805$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.734,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed TCU Horned Frogs75c2,810$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.122,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04fe…3688backed TCU Horned Frogs58c2,234$1,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Washington Huskies1c2,216$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.115427.8%15 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Washington Huskies18c1,714$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8723754.4%129 W · 108 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed TCU Horned Frogs45c1,655$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.997655.3%42 W · 34 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2363…b0e8backed Washington Huskies63c1,426$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Washington Huskies18c1,033$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Washington Huskies37c896.28$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.5119147.6%91 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Washington Huskies53c790.56$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.92944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Washington Huskies21c640.4$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5810437.5%39 W · 65 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Washington Huskies15c637.46$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.854221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Washington Huskies72c591.32$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.048757.5%50 W · 37 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7525…0ec1backed Washington Huskies46c587.46$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.821118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked Washington Huskies63c584.13$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3215240.1%61 W · 91 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Washington Huskies53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30043450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Washington Huskies48c517.24$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0705…41ebbacked TCU Horned Frogs75c478.06$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.731442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1528…e141backed Washington Huskies62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2481050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Washington Huskies38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1509711.3%11 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa368…b0e7backed Washington Huskies51c391.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Washington Huskies53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked TCU Horned Frogs52c359.16$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.461,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a6…204dbacked Washington Huskies59c352.73$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed TCU Horned Frogs68c337.54$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.681,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd35d…a329backed Washington Huskies13c318.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bb…1759backed Washington Huskies35c288.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked TCU Horned Frogs52c285.98$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.987646.1%35 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Washington Huskies53c285.79$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.421376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed TCU Horned Frogs48c238.79$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.3912045.8%55 W · 65 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0d6…ed00backed Washington Huskies9c236.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+326.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Washington Huskies18c230$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.43250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Washington Huskies22c223.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5115243.4%66 W · 86 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked TCU Horned Frogs57c210.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.532240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Washington Huskies25c210.22$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.21,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Washington Huskies49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Washington Huskies53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b3…7650backed TCU Horned Frogs68c179.32$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…e187backed TCU Horned Frogs53c168.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.637546.7%35 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Washington Huskies37c161.66$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.172,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Washington Huskies19c161.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.298055%44 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed TCU Horned Frogs52c144.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.391782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Washington Huskies17c134$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5814728.6%42 W · 105 L-0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked TCU Horned Frogs53c131.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5710553.3%56 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked TCU Horned Frogs53c129.11$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.593748.6%18 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e0…e850backed TCU Horned Frogs59c127.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1707…4b9dbacked Washington Huskies74c127.45$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Huskies18c123.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.313,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Washington Huskies37c122.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.057856.4%44 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Washington Huskies18c122$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked TCU Horned Frogs45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1132246.6%150 W · 172 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98b5…2b43backed TCU Horned Frogs52c106.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Huskies37c103.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1615238.8%59 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked TCU Horned Frogs51c102.35$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3513956.8%79 W · 60 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Washington Huskies33c100.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3357655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked TCU Horned Frogs64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Washington Huskies52c99.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.992334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-36.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Washington Huskies65c99.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9725438.2%97 W · 157 L-14.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2237…d2c6backed Washington Huskies20c98.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked TCU Horned Frogs51c96.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3984854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Washington Huskies37c96.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2833445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed TCU Horned Frogs48c92.19$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1917647.2%83 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…7cf6backed TCU Horned Frogs36c84.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Washington Huskies57c82.41$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.162140.4%251 W · 370 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed TCU Horned Frogs52c82.41$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.634957.1%28 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc01d…2e79backed Washington Huskies20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Washington Huskies31c72.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2130746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Washington Huskies61c70$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.814354.5%78 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5569…c927backed TCU Horned Frogs66c65.23$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc332…59a9backed Washington Huskies22c62.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b35…768ebacked Washington Huskies38c62.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.542650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Washington Huskies21c57.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd418…d11fbacked TCU Horned Frogs49c50.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.472951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Washington Huskies49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.55538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b9…4ae4backed TCU Horned Frogs53c49.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x464c…4632backed Washington Huskies34c49.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc1…2868backed Washington Huskies66c48.56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed TCU Horned Frogs53c45.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.532552%13 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed TCU Horned Frogs52c44.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.457247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Washington Huskies52c44.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315246.7%71 W · 81 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed TCU Horned Frogs40c41.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1422250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed TCU Horned Frogs55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27443.2%32 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Washington Huskies43c38.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.822,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe256…1dd8backed Washington Huskies49c37.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed TCU Horned Frogs53c34.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2311136%40 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked TCU Horned Frogs50c30.93$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.475644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5d…d375backed Washington Huskies49c30.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90b5…2139backed TCU Horned Frogs64c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00d…4251backed TCU Horned Frogs76c22.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.37875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed TCU Horned Frogs50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.929725.8%25 W · 72 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8796…c744backed Washington Huskies46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f59…b46cbacked Washington Huskies52c21.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed TCU Horned Frogs53c20.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.749554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea7…6b2bbacked TCU Horned Frogs50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Washington Huskies50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d90…3bbdbacked TCU Horned Frogs65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe223…34eebacked TCU Horned Frogs69c16.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.