TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
John Yannisof Jamie Siraj, John Yannis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0a5…0c4bbacked John Yannis31c2,782$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,913.628940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked John Yannis37c2,093$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.4510546.7%49 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Jamie Siraj69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.98875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed John Yannis31c1,965$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.041346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+47.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Jamie Siraj69c1,818$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.171662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Jamie Siraj20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300368.3%3 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed John Yannis80c1,433$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.629949.5%49 W · 50 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Jamie Siraj70c1,315$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.8410542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Jamie Siraj63c1,206$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.1915939.6%63 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Jamie Siraj2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863a…e495backed John Yannis30c1,164$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.08728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Jamie Siraj68c999.87$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.236246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jamie Siraj68c989.39$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.7941754%225 W · 192 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked John Yannis29c919.09$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Jamie Siraj57c784.03$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.113253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Jamie Siraj71c750.34$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.7435564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Jamie Siraj69c729.95$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.678851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed John Yannis30c701.97$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.3810035%35 W · 65 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked John Yannis44c646.62$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.0615933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Jamie Siraj55c632.04$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9213951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed John Yannis29c604.84$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.4415540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Jamie Siraj70c577.98$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.582227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93cb…32c0backed John Yannis30c538.16$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.712630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed John Yannis29c446.75$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.1929133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Jamie Siraj73c436.82$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.3410270.6%72 W · 30 L+10.5wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed John Yannis25c432.77$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.932425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0094…c496backed Jamie Siraj71c415.18$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.786532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Jamie Siraj72c412.01$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8816158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked John Yannis57c341.57$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.721266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Jamie Siraj48c303.59$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.764645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed John Yannis39c277.13$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0529151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e3…cb10backed Jamie Siraj70c250.07$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.555651.8%29 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Jamie Siraj25c224.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.293732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jamie Siraj69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked John Yannis29c199.71$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9110351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked John Yannis41c194.11$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.951533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed John Yannis31c185.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.026546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Jamie Siraj57c177.13$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.382744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa182…3106backed Jamie Siraj72c161.66$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked John Yannis31c154.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.683435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Jamie Siraj69c147.21$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5716058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf72…b4a6backed Jamie Siraj69c143.49$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.441942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe25b…678dbacked Jamie Siraj70c141.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Jamie Siraj57c141.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.292343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Jamie Siraj59c140.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.072334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa1d…8fa8backed Jamie Siraj70c138.88$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.222454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Jamie Siraj71c138.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2626569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf10…96c3backed Jamie Siraj70c133.27$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.291346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed John Yannis31c122.05$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7413646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Jamie Siraj54c117.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9722438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed John Yannis27c112.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.166045%27 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked John Yannis57c107.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6516746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Jamie Siraj69c104.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.796355.6%35 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jamie Siraj66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.514929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Jamie Siraj69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698252.4%43 W · 39 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Jamie Siraj69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6911749.6%58 W · 59 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05c6…f4e2backed Jamie Siraj70c98.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7422568.9%155 W · 70 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed John Yannis30c94.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3920933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed John Yannis31c93.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7213437.3%50 W · 84 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Jamie Siraj71c89.96$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.873650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82a…ef47backed John Yannis31c88.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.762030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Jamie Siraj68c88.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed John Yannis30c86.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3513735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc0…8107backed John Yannis32c84.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+75.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x247a…7248backed John Yannis31c82.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked John Yannis31c78.35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3918440.8%75 W · 109 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed John Yannis31c77.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3432431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed John Yannis30c73.45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4112546.4%58 W · 67 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ba…86fdbacked Jamie Siraj70c70.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.125060.4%151 W · 99 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Jamie Siraj70c70.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.7wins-0.34per pick55cpaid-56.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed John Yannis29c66.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4313221.2%28 W · 104 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Jamie Siraj72c65.47$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.194463.6%28 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Jamie Siraj69c63.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.852857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c5…0e0dbacked John Yannis31c62.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.435457.4%31 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x801f…3c62backed Jamie Siraj65c57.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4510660.4%64 W · 42 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jamie Siraj39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Jamie Siraj70c49.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.689460.6%57 W · 37 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Jamie Siraj72c49.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.42060%12 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Jamie Siraj72c49.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.43764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Jamie Siraj71c49.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8824851.2%127 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9413…11acbacked John Yannis23c48.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.89459.6%56 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e1…4fdebacked John Yannis31c46.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+49.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9258…8610backed John Yannis31c45.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked John Yannis29c45.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.18306.7%2 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.25per pick31cpaid-75.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Jamie Siraj57c44.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.335158.8%30 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f94…f992backed John Yannis43c40.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.174445.5%20 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed John Yannis33c40.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.25944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e9…48dfbacked Jamie Siraj69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db2…be55backed Jamie Siraj73c39.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Jamie Siraj55c38.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.422343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bb…9739backed Jamie Siraj77c38.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff97…e7cabacked John Yannis49c35.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811078.2%86 W · 24 L+15.6wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Jamie Siraj68c34.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.577452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d83…8673backed Jamie Siraj71c34.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.577170.4%50 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Jamie Siraj69c34.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.79637.5%36 W · 60 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…238bbacked Jamie Siraj72c34.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.583948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b3…aaaebacked Jamie Siraj71c34.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed John Yannis68c33.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.912451.6%64 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7008…d2f5backed John Yannis59c33.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.526342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1598…c488backed Jamie Siraj70c32.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5912860.2%77 W · 51 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

  • UFC Fight Night: Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
  • O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.