Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70818c9c33a4dfb83ffa51d54ebdfe830b683950e5c8760151d72fd3bdf17a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 45c | 1,355$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.2 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 3c | 873.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 64c | 873.5$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.85 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 45c | 476.41$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 42c | 353.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 63c | 309.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 240.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 66c | 206.2$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 48c | 176.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…a1c1backed Yes | 60c | 165.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 164.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed No | 62c | 142.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 138.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 67c | 112.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 110.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 106.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 39c | 102.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 38c | 100.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.29 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…6a6dbacked Yes | 45c | 92.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 88.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 63c | 77.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 73.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 71.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 66.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 51c | 64.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 64c | 64.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 64c | 56.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 53.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 38c | 51.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 43c | 50.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…eef0backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 65c | 43.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 30c | 43.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…537bbacked No | 56c | 40.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…772abacked Yes | 41c | 37.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 64c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…1fccbacked No | 47c | 35.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 42c | 32.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a60…211ebacked Yes | 70c | 25.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed Yes | 51c | 23.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…45b7backed Yes | 67c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 61c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 68c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 66c | 16.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.