Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d80a2d8a1553d286cab53f5a7f4e5b81924e3cce44fa354d63f8bca434f55a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 36c | 664.48$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 73c | 555.27$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 48c | 510.05$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 56c | 470.37$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 36c | 411.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 46c | 355.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.12 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed Yes | 14c | 319.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 47c | 284.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 9c | 222.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 203.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 51c | 180.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.81 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed No | 77c | 172.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 145.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 144$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 131.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 58c | 125.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 58c | 104.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 49c | 101.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 94.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 49c | 92.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 86.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…a92bbacked Yes | 15c | 74.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +506.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 80c | 74.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…3d3ebacked No | 60c | 66.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…9f27backed No | 61c | 65.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 31c | 65.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 53.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 54c | 52.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 51.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…cd6abacked Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11de…4e67backed No | 65c | 50.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 62c | 48.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…eef0backed Yes | 43c | 43.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 49c | 42.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…fd02backed No | 63c | 41.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…537cbacked Yes | 47c | 38.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…32e4backed Yes | 29c | 38.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 45c | 37.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed No | 51c | 35.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed Yes | 39c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9736…64b8backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…53e3backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…8551backed Yes | 40c | 29.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5563…9017backed Yes | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…5836backed No | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…076dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 70c | 26.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 50c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 58c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 63c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 22.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174d…bcf6backed No | 57c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e10…b1ffbacked Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 70c | 21.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…783cbacked Yes | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…5845backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 60c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…8c72backed No | 60c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5515…1520backed No | 60c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…eb30backed Yes | 60c | 16.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 26-27°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.