Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc71a588a772270232f6f83582f35c2002caf3dd9de3466d38e9b791838ebb298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $888,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $888,798 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 655 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 122,910$61,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,452.46 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 52c | 121,574$63,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,063.91 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 96,000$46,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,079.26 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…1485backed Heroic | 50c | 44,444$22,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,222 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Heroic | 62c | 40,842$25,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,328.74 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Heroic | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 34,369$12,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,385.1 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Heroic | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,699.98 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…9fe2backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 25,995$12,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,737.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Heroic | 68c | 23,892$16,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,677.02 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 21,847$10,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,493.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Heroic | 51c | 20,902$10,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,218.25 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 14,140$6,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,645.94 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 13,775$7,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,025.47 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Heroic | 71c | 13,037$9,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,811.29 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Heroic | 51c | 12,939$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,313.57 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 12,727$5,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,839.41 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,099.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Heroic | 50c | 8,894$4,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Heroic | 49c | 8,353$4,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,220.43 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 8,189$3,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Heroic | 52c | 7,715$4,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,710.24 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 7,266$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 6,812$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.74 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 6,423$3,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.52 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…7f4abacked Heroic | 49c | 6,087$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Heroic | 61c | 5,398$3,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.53 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Natus Vincere | 0c | 5,076$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…bbe1backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 4,910$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic | 48c | 4,478$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.5 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Heroic | 61c | 4,331$2,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.32 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Heroic | 49c | 4,267$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 4,222$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Heroic | 55c | 3,855$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.31 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1f2bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 3,850$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Heroic | 52c | 3,847$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.41 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Heroic | 60c | 3,520$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.39 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Heroic | 51c | 3,354$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.34 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…afd6backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 3,336$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 3,330$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.27 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…b277backed Heroic | 51c | 3,266$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…2dfabacked Heroic | 60c | 3,149$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 3,060$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.9 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 3,000$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.13 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,992$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.47 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f40…e1f2backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 2,980$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.47 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 2,978$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.9 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Heroic | 55c | 2,929$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.66 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…060cbacked Heroic | 49c | 2,546$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…31ebbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 2,494$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 2,400$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,300$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…6cdbbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,266$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 2,227$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.61 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,221$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.17 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 2,142$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.81 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Heroic | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Heroic | 49c | 2,021$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.71 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 2,014$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.34 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 43c | 2,001$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.74 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Heroic | 55c | 2,000$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.1 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 1,960$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.21 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Heroic | 60c | 1,933$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.97 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…4a8dbacked Heroic | 65c | 1,901$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.69 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…fbafbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,882$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,798$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.88 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,796$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Natus Vincere | 4c | 1,771$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 1,672$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Heroic | 55c | 1,633$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.43 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Heroic | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,600$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…172fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,502$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Heroic | 49c | 1,450$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Heroic | 52c | 1,410$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.96 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…79a6backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 1,317$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a8…8bbfbacked Heroic | 75c | 1,309$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Heroic | 62c | 1,304$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.86 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,301$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,299$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Heroic | 51c | 1,205$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.63 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 1,074$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.25 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,061$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.87 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,050$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.55 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Heroic | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked Heroic | 61c | 1,000$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…780cbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 984.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 974.92$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Heroic | 55c | 968.03$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.03 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…54d1backed Heroic | 67c | 924.04$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Heroic | 55c | 913.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.67 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 903.56$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.