Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd164997914643d642757a423f19ef506e28bdfc7f45c31bec13fe4e9881c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,935 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 32,949$14,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,224.96 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Heroic | 53c | 27,238$14,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,859.01 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 53c | 27,133$14,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,832.76 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Heroic | 59c | 20,000$11,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,129.37 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Heroic | 50c | 14,771$7,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,416.22 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 13,774$6,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,473.58 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 11,734$6,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,405.1 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 11,352$4,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,987.52 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…1485backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 9,064$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.45 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 8,517$3,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,813.69 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 6,284$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.71 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Heroic | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 5,504$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.33 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Heroic | 60c | 3,342$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.3 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Heroic | 45c | 3,222$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.78 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Heroic | 58c | 2,638$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.99 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 2,400$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.73 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 2,389$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 2,266$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.94 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…4a8dbacked Heroic | 63c | 2,147$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.81 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Heroic | 41c | 1,941$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.03 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Heroic | 47c | 1,846$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.13 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic | 52c | 1,812$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.15 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 1,800$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.14 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Natus Vincere | 9c | 1,749$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.41 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 1,652$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,556$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.58 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 1,554$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.1 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Heroic | 74c | 1,470$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 1,353$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,212$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Heroic | 49c | 1,161$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.87 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,100$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 1,074$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.99 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Heroic | 46c | 1,068$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.83 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Heroic | 55c | 1,036$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.36 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 918.93$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.36 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 54c | 900$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb110…21eabacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Heroic | 58c | 877.27$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.57 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Heroic | 53c | 859.33$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.26 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 817.76$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.7 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 797.65$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.04 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 774.89$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.49 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…09a3backed Heroic | 50c | 741.6$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Heroic | 39c | 732.71$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.96 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…b5e5backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 679.99$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.1 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 643$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 626.67$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.67 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Heroic | 47c | 590.25$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.42 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…d40cbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Heroic | 50c | 510$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 510$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…db3fbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 500$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e0…ac15backed Heroic | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…113fbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 499.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.98 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 461.37$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.04 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…6e45backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 460$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…be98backed Heroic | 50c | 460$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Heroic | 58c | 449.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 444.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Heroic | 52c | 441.34$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.32 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Heroic | 43c | 433.63$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…fbafbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 428.08$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Heroic | 54c | 425.71$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.94 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…cb1bbacked Heroic | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 397.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…b6a2backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 393.13$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 388.97$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 366$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…04d9backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 313.3$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 312$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Heroic | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Natus Vincere | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -71%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Heroic | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 454 | 57.5%261 W · 193 L | +39.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Heroic | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Heroic | 50c | 277.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 51c | 271.57$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…6fdfbacked Heroic | 50c | 268.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…b7debacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 264.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 259.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 248.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Natus Vincere | 16c | 239.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Heroic | 53c | 228.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…74b2backed Heroic | 67c | 222.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heroic | 55c | 208.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 198$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 191.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.