Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x971e7206f24e833ab044dfefda0f16a07081ffa7030817050b88cd4d22923e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Heroic, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,764 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 92,640$45,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,821.67 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Heroic | 51c | 50,022$25,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,511.07 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Heroic | 50c | 29,592$14,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,780.3 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Heroic | 56c | 15,085$8,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,379.51 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Heroic | 53c | 10,040$5,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,340.87 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 9,243$3,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,083.52 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 9,174$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,106.93 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 6,983$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,882.71 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 5,650$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.09 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Heroic | 49c | 5,225$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.22 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 4,895$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.84 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Heroic | 54c | 4,600$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Heroic | 50c | 4,308$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.01 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 3,748$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.19 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 3,475$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.12 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Heroic | 65c | 2,832$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.06 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Heroic | 49c | 2,805$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.02 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 2,696$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.84 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 2,680$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.02 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Heroic | 64c | 2,627$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.28 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Heroic | 50c | 2,274$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.79 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a5b8backed Heroic | 64c | 1,936$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.79 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7d…fbafbacked Heroic | 57c | 1,749$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic | 22c | 1,530$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.7 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 1,514$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.99 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 1,400$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Heroic | 16c | 1,374$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic | 40c | 1,298$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.5 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 1,247$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.63 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 1,230$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Heroic | 14c | 1,170$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +11.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 1,157$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.43 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Heroic | 4c | 1,120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 1,091$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.38 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Heroic | 50c | 1,065$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.03 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 1,062$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,061$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.92 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,031$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.65 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Natus Vincere | 19c | 981.99$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.58 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Heroic | 55c | 924.48$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.43 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Heroic | 53c | 880.77$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.81 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 824.99$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.75 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 819.66$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 715.58$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.58 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Heroic | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 700$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.86 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 675.92$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Natus Vincere | 9c | 632.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.02 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Heroic | 50c | 610$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Heroic | 61c | 608.92$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.45 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Heroic | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Heroic | 73c | 599.98$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.99 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 591.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.9 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Heroic | 54c | 535.68$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.83 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 527.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.89 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Natus Vincere | 11c | 481.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.79 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 469.61$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.07 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 450$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.52 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Heroic | 49c | 447.59$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.32 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…6eccbacked Heroic | 27c | 429.29$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 425.92$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Heroic | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 415.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.79 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 400.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Heroic | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Natus Vincere | 3c | 400$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.8 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Heroic | 48c | 390$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…38cbbacked Heroic | 55c | 381.16$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.64 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…7818backed Natus Vincere | 17c | 358.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…ef2bbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 56c | 340.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 329.77$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Heroic | 50c | 324.96$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Heroic | 55c | 314.73$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc2…514cbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 312.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.52 | 338 | 45.6%154 W · 184 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 312.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.74 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Heroic | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Heroic | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 286.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 284.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…ef88backed Heroic | 40c | 277.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Heroic | 21c | 273.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Heroic | 37c | 271.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…9aeabacked Heroic | 51c | 260.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…3539backed Heroic | 56c | 257.4$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Heroic | 56c | 249.81$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 247.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 202.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 198.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Heroic | 75c | 193.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc182…1339backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 190.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Heroic | 44c | 189.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…5bc1backed Heroic | 32c | 189.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 188.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Heroic | 19c | 187.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.