Serie A · resolved market
SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75ac3b5a70898ca1979c62f2faac350048971a4bafafde7aee595480e45ff9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,982 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 5,952$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.38 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 55c | 1,807$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 58c | 1,035$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.51 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 76c | 878$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 57c | 614.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.04 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 501.13$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 434.75$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.82 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 37c | 399.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 46c | 388.78$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 22c | 227.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 55%99 W · 81 L | +15.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…740ebacked Over | 33c | 193.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 7c | 172.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 21c | 165$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 58c | 122$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 43c | 114.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…5587backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 15c | 100.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4e11backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 59c | 84.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 22c | 72.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Over | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 70c | 56.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Over | 36c | 46.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Over | 43c | 35.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25a…d724backed Under | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Over | 59c | 33.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 50c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 30.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 61c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 50c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Over | 57c | 23.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 52c | 22.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5this page
- SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Over won
- SSC Napoli vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.