Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc783a1bc1d6f94c6afd7c4e0baf5d850a2f5e3bdbde2d5c41323fd940724d854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,342$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.87 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 49c | 622$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.52 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 588$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 246$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…35a6backed Yes | 42c | 190$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 185.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 168.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 167.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 165.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 155$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 153.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 130.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 129.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 116.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 100.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 87.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 64c | 68.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 66.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 63.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 56.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 68c | 55.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 52c | 47.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 47.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 46.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…a428backed Yes | 67c | 44.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 75c | 36.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 35.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 32.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 28.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 39c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 77c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 26.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 53c | 24.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 46c | 22.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 19.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 53c | 19.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.