NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c49af5f8a8a304f68bb0b13d7de0dd1afa2715e6b0bb56266640a0ec3ebbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Jets | 39c | 290,401$113,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113,275.87 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Jaguars | 63c | 194,863$122,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,939.48 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Jaguars | 70c | 20,418$14,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,162.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Jaguars | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 44c | 11,868$5,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,646.35 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jaguars | 55c | 11,091$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,990.91 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jaguars | 63c | 10,080$6,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Jaguars | 55c | 9,321$5,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.63 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jaguars | 59c | 8,412$4,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.25 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Jets | 55c | 6,077$3,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.33 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Jaguars | 57c | 3,274$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.48 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jaguars | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Jets | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars | 46c | 1,195$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.3 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Jaguars | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jaguars | 60c | 985.51$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.46 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Jaguars | 45c | 775.11$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.31 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 45c | 550$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jaguars | 57c | 325$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Jets | 55c | 250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jaguars | 59c | 168$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Jaguars | 45c | 154.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 44c | 151.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Jets | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Jets | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Jaguars | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Jets | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Jaguars won
- Jets vs. JaguarsJaguars won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineJaguars won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 40.5Over won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 41.5Over won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 42.5Over won
- Jets vs. Jaguars: O/U 43.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-12.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-20.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-9.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.